(That's me half exposed between the two smiling dudes.)
I'm not really an insider but I do know some people. But then so does everyone else.
Love them or hate them-and I do simultaneously-the Academy Awards aka the Oscars will spark debate on what the best film of a particular year is. In truth, there really is no universal best film, director, actor or actress obviously, as it is all subjective. And the 5700 plus members who deem the Oscar winners, are according to John Horn of the Los Angeles Times (2012) 94% white, 77% male and with a median age of 62. Mitt Romney would have welcomed those numbers if a majority of them weren't liberal leaning, which they most likely are.
So to try and figure the winner out, one just has to factor those into thinking-not what should be the winner based on our own opinion. That being said, it looks like Argo is the one to beat, but more on that later.
Oscar is an Anglophile
-Look at the history of the awards and one can see that in nearly every year, an English man or woman have distinguished themselves in the eyes of Hollywood. This year, it is no different with Daniel Day Lewis who is most likely the finest actor of this generation. And with overall schmaltziness of LINCOLN aside, his performance was by far the best of any actor this year.
Oscar likes young ladies
-Since 1996 save two, all the Academy Best Actress in a Leading Role winners have been under 40 at the time they took home the golden statue. The only exceptions are Helen Mirren in 2006 for THE QUEEN who of course is English, and Meryl Streep who played England's prime minister Margaret Thatcher. Plus the Streep Factor was in full effect. I mean 17 noms and three wins. For God's sake Streep could win it if she played Mike Tyson playing Gandhi-which rumor has it, the former champ talked about. Meaning, this doesn't bode well for Emmanuel Riva who is neither under 40 (she's amazingly 86 today!) nor English (French) while if favors Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica (I always call her Brandi because I'm a sportswriter) Chastain.
Oscar Loves Pixar and So Do I-
that said, with six wins in the last nine years, it is almost automatic for the Norcal studio to produce a Best Animated Feature winner-even if they may or may not be the best of that year. Looking at comparing the winning films with fellow nominated films of '03 with FINDING NEMO (as opposed to THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE), '07's RATATOUILLE (PERSEPOLIS), '09 UP! (CORALINE and THE FANTASTIC MR. FOX) and TOY STORY 3 (THE ILLUSIONIST), one could find strength in this argument. By picking Pixar it's not really
a BRAVE choice.
Oscar follows No Rules-(but only if it concerns SUPPORTING ACTOR/ACTRESS)
-Deserved winners or not, this category is all over the map from worthy performances to head scratchers like this year's favorite Anne Hathaway who was on the screen for a scant few minutes in Les Miserables (a film I admit I could not sit through), but most likely will win. On the men's side, for possibly the first time in history five past winners will vie for the statue with Tommie Lee Jones the solid favorite for his portrayal of abolitionistThaddeus Stevens although I liked Christoph Waltz's turn as Dr. King Schultz in DJANGO UNCHAINED much better.
Oscar Loves Harvey Weinstein (Even if he makes people love them)
- Since 1995 with PULP FICTION, Harvey and Bob-whether it was from their Miramax (sweetly named after their parents Mira and Max) or their own Weinstein Company, one of the films they produced or distributed has won or been nominated in every year since. Their breakout year was in 1998/'99 when SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE upset Best Director winner Steven Spielberg's SAVING PRIVATE RYAN for Best Picture. On top of that, his Roberto Benigni star and directed movie LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL, was a fellow nominee and then won Best Foreign Film.
The Weinstein Company, which I admit I am an admirer of, has taken home BP statues the last two years for THE KING'S SPEECH (2011) and THE ARTIST last year. There are many negatives by others, and they have perhaps somewhat accurately been called the movies' New York Yankees or Evil Empire. But look at it this way, from the studio to their publicists, the Weinstein organization is something to behold come awards time.
They run their films like they are political candidates and won't stop until their films win (are elected) or drop trying. This year, in terms of BP, it may be the latter as ARGO, perhaps playing on the sympathy of the Best Directing snub to a deserving Ben Affleck, it gained momentum. Regardless, ARGO is a solid if not outstanding film that has all the elements-cinematography, editing, sound, story and exemplary if not recognized acting to win the top prize.
For a consolation prize, Harvey may cop a few awards thanks to SILVER LINING PLAYBOOK director David O. Russell and screenwriter and my bro Quentin Tarantino for DJANGO UNCHAINED.
Oscar doesn't mind poking fun at itself just as long as it doesn't go too far
