Why THE ARTIST Will (probably) Win Best Picture

Okay, here's who I think is going to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards tonight...wait, I don't know. But I do have a general idea, that when they open the envelope to reveal the Academy Award winner for Best Picture at the Kodak, ahem Hollywood and Highland Bankrupt Center Theatre tonight, I will be surprised if I'm surprised.

By the end of the broadcast, people will say that Billy Crystal was a nice replacement choice (While I and many others will have wished for Jon Stewart, Ellen, Chris Rock, or even Hugh Jackman to have been up there.) as host. No surprises, no Brent Ratner bombs of intolerance…

The other most likely occurrence is that, THE ARTIST will probably win Best Picture. I can't personally argue, because I loved the film enough to see it three, well two-and-a-half times because when the director Michel Hazanavicius came up to do a Q & A, I had to leave halfway through. When working with him, Michel and lead actor Jean Dujardin were gracious and actress Berenice Bejo took my breath away.

But no matter how much I enjoyed the film, I can't honestly say if it was the best of 2012 or not. Everyone surely has their own opinions much like they did when talking about 2009's SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE-it was good, but definitely not the best of the year was a familiar refrain.

While it remains one of my favorite films of recent years, in SLUMDOG's defense, the film won eight of the 10 Oscars it was nominated in including Best Picture, without having the benefit of one performer even being nominated in any of the four acting categories. Among Oscar receivers were director Danny Boyle, adapted screenplay (who my boy Simon Beaufoy beautifully adapted from Vikas Swarup’s wonderful novel "Q AND A'), cinematography, sound, music and direction. All for a film that a producers group that included Christian Colson, were worried about not getting any funding (after Warner Independent went under, it was bought by Fox Searchlight around the time of its world premiere at Telluride in 2008) and fearing it having to go direct to video. Soon enough, it gained critical acclaim and awards and where everyone was singing JAI HO! As SLUMDOG eventually grossed $377 million worldwide.

But I digress.

The journey of THE ARTIST shares some parallels, but it also has its differences. Unlike SLUMDOG, it is still relatively slow at box office ($76.5 million so far) and Dujardin (Best Actor) and the lovely Bejo (Best Supporting Actress) garnered performance Oscar nominations. But THE ARTIST is similar to Boyle's film in a few aspects, including noms in several different categories. It also has momentum amongst critics and more importantly, voting Academy members.

But even with a dearth of strong candidates, it could be an upset victim to THE DESCENDENTS or even HUGO when the last award is announced.

But it is in my opinion that it won't fall victim to the major upset due to the Weinstein Effect, aka Harvey and Bob. This one wildcard THE ARTIST holds up its sleeve will probably be the difference maker when the envelope is opened. Normally studios don't make that much of a difference, or at least as much as they would like people to believe, but because of the influence of the Weinstein brothers - any film that they were involved in has a shot at the brass ring...errr, golden statue. Take for instance one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history when SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE defeated SAVING PRIVATE RYAN and three others to win Best Picture in 1998.

Anyone who is familiar with film at the time can attest that this was nothing short of monumental, especially after PRIVATE RYAN's director Steven Spielberg had just taken the Best Director win a few minutes early. The odds of this occurring are not impossible, but difficult as films that have won a Best Director prize have gone onto win Best Picture 62 out of 85 times in Academy history.

When Harrison Ford (aka Grumpy Old Man With an Earring which is another story entirely) opened the envelope on national television, I recall a brief flash of shock over his face before announcing it. But was it really? This writer thinks that the brothers and their minions who were part of then Miramax Studios (which was named after the brothers' parents) understood the workings of a once mysterious group of Academy voters. Since then, their demographic cover has been blown thanks to a recent comprehensive article by the Lost Angeles Times that details the makeup of the 5,765 voting members. The story points out that the Academy Members are predominantly white males (no surprise there) that average 62-years of age.

With the utmost of respect and admiration, I think they knew how to work the system in their favor via publicity, shrewd marketing and knowing and being ahead of the curve in the ever-changing business. For the lack of a better term, they were the MONEYBALL (one of film's competition in the category) of their day with the difference being that they actually won the championship a few times.

I suspect a lot of this has to do with the T-Factor. No, the T-Factor is not some kind of foolproof saber metric formula, but it might as well be. The T-Factor is Lisa Taback, a publicist that works on Oscar campaigns. She was a big part of the publicity of SHAKESPEARE and since, then dozens of nominated and winning films, including last year's winner THE KING'S SPEECH-which leapfrogged frontrunners THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE BLACK SWAN for the top prize.

Having known her these last few years, I have come to know Lisa as one tough broad who one doesn't want to cross. But to me she is always cordial and has shone compassion and reached out after losing a friend. I have come to admire her because of my interactions with observations of to see that she knows exactly what is needed to be a contender and will go to the wall to ensure that it happens.

It truly is a sight to watch her, her staff as well as the Weinstein group tirelessly work the room/red carpet in terms of getting media exposure for their film and possibly swaying voters much like a presidential candidate's staff trying to do the same thing. I again saw this firsthand at the Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday. While I don't have any insider information (if I did, I would be Vegas bound), but based on this as well as the habits of the Academy voters, it would be hard to bet against THE ARTIST as well as the Weinstein Effect and the T-Factor tonight.